Rain Ending Today, Warm Week Ahead.

From the two maps on the right, it is apparent that much of the state has received a good soaking. The first map shows the rainfall over the last 12 hours and the second shows the rainfall including the Thursday event. As welcome as these rains have been, we are still in need of some run-off producing rains and for the more drought stricken areas to the west, this has not been a drought breaker by any stretch.

The system responsible for the rains of last night and this morning will be lifting out to the NE during the day today so that our rain will be ending from west to east as the day wears on. Also, our skies will be clearing from west to east, but that will not likely happen till along about sunset with fair skies for much of the overnight hours. Temperatures will hold in the upper 40s and lower 50s as long as the rain is falling, then recover into the upper 50s and lower 60s once the rain ends.

The coming week looks much more like late April or May than early March with respect to temperatures. We will keep a S to SW surface wind all week long so there will be no cool air intrusions coming this way. As a result, look for temperatures to be running way above normal, particularly with respect to the overnight lows. After starting off near 50 Monday morning and in the mid 50s Tuesday morning, we expect to see lows generally running in the lower 60s for the rest of the week. To put this into perspective, the normal temperature range for this time of year is a morning low in the upper 30s and a daytime high in the lower 60s. So, for much of this coming week we will start each day close to our normal daytime high and only go on up from there.

Speaking of which, our daytime highs for the coming week will be running from the upper 70s to the lower 80s depending on how much sunshine we receive each day. The southerly surface winds will maintain abundant low level moisture so we expect partly cloudy to at times mostly cloudy skies each day. Also, the flow aloft will be generally from the SW and will have some occasional embedded disturbances which will provide additional clouds from time to time. These systems will also provide at least a slight chance of a shower or storm from mid week right on into the coming weekend.

You just know this pattern will have to change and the payback may be a doozy. Preliminary indications suggest a more significant storm system arriving early in Spring Break Week. So far, the longer range guidance is reasonably consistent with this system and it is one that will be watched closely as the time draws closer and the guidance becomes more reliable.

In the meantime, enjoy the early taste of Spring, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot