Rain Chances Soon

Expect mostly to partly cloudy conditions today with highs in the upper 60s near 70s.  Rain and storm chances will be increasing for most of the area by Thursday morning along with colder air Thursday into Friday.

We're watching another major upper level system drawing closer to the region which will result in rain and storm chances for our area.  Today the winds will continue to be strong from the south-southeast at 20 to 35 mph with a few gusts near 40 mph, but the winds today should not be as strong as yesterday's winds.  

Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s near 70 with mostly cloudy conditions with a very slight chance for a shower or storm today, more so tonight, across the far western sections of the state.

We expect warm and moist air to stream northward overnight as the system to the west gets closer.  A surface area of low pressure will form to our southwest and a warm front will move closer to the Northern Oklahoma area by early Thursday morning.  The position of the boundary with warm moist air located just south is a little concerning, but at this point, the higher chances for severe storms are expected to reside more southward across the southeastern part of the state into much of north central Texas.   Dew points in the 60s will be likely in these areas and severe storms will be a possibility later Thursday afternoon and evening to our south.  

Our best chance for showers and storms will begin tomorrow shortly after midnight and continue for part of the day Thursday.  We may start in the upper 50s or lower 60s Thursday morning and then fall into the mid-40s by late Thursday afternoon as the cold front moves southward.   

The upper level system is expected to slow down and become somewhat cut off from the upper level flow creating an unsettled weather pattern for Friday into part of the weekend.  The data remains unclear on the exact outcome.  The rest of the forecast remains a little iffy. (Iffy is a meteorological term, but used only by me.)

The 00 GFS featured the upper level system splitting into two chunks of energy this weekend taking most of the precip to the south.   The 00 EURO was a little slower with more moisture and kept the main upper level system intact.  This solution would support more rain Saturday and even the possibility of some additional severe storm formation across part of eastern Ok Saturday afternoon or evening into Sunday.  The incoming 06GFS this morning is suggesting a round of showers or storms for late Saturday evening into Sunday morning with some heavy rainfall potential across eastern OK.  This solution would result in some flooding concerns for the eastern part of the state.

Basically we're going to broad brush some pops for the weekend with the higher chances occurring late Saturday evening into Sunday morning. 

The fire danger continues to be a big concern, but the increase of low level moisture will go a long way in helping to curb the spread of wild fire today.  Please use caution. 

A special thanks to the Fairland Volunteer Fire Department in the far northeastern part of the state.  We were in Fairland for a Wild Weather Camp yesterday and had the pleasure of eating some homemade barbeque in the fire house.  This great group of guys and girls do a super job of helping their community, and they also cook some tremendously tasty barbeque.  I actually told the guys they should use their homemade barbeque as a fund raiser.  It's that good!  Thanks again to the Fairland Volunteer Fire Department for their hospitality. 

The kids at the school were also super great.  We had the pleasure of seeing kids from Wyandotte, Fairland, and Afton.  The kids were super great and we're very well behaved.  Thanks to the teachers and administrators for allowing us to conduct a wild weather camp for the kids.