High Fire Danger Today, Rain Is On The Way

Howling….that pretty well summarizes what the wind will be like this Tuesday as a deepening surface pressure gradient and a strong low level jet will combine to provide wind gusts to 40 mph or more through the afternoon hours. Since those winds will be blowing from the south, they will gradually bring more moisture and our dew point temperatures will be slowly rising. But, the very warm temperatures with highs expected in the low-mid 70s will still drop the relative humidity to near 30% during the heat of the day. That all adds up to another extremely dangerous fire weather situation.

The moisture will really be surging northward by Wednesday and the strength of the southerly winds should back off somewhat so the fire danger will be mitigated to a certain extent. The increasing moisture levels will also result in mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers by late in the day along with temperatures way above normal once again.

That will be changing, at least with respect to our daytime highs, on Thursday. A cool front is still on schedule to arrive during the Thursday morning time frame followed by brisk N to NE winds and cooler weather. This also has the promise of being a very wet system, not only for our side of the state but for the more western counties as well. In fact, the map on the right shows how much widespread rainfall may occur before it all ends. The map is a broad brush at this time frame and although the rainfall totals will not be a drought breaker for the more western counties, it will certainly help a great deal. For our side of the state, we may end up dealing with too much rain too fast and some locations could go from drought to flood by the time this is all over. Too many uncertainties right now to be any more specific than that.

The major uncertainty is the location and intensity of the main storm system aloft. This system is dropping into the southern Rockies where it will become cut-off from the upper level circulation. This will leave it to meander around somewhat with a gradual eastward drift. As a result, the longer range guidance has been lacking much consistency from one run to the next and that leads to considerable uncertainty beyond the Thursday time frame. About the best that can be said right now is Thursday is looking very wet, followed by an unsettled period into the coming weekend. So, additional showers and thunder will be in the forecast through Saturday along with cooler temperatures. The severe weather threat is also difficult to anticipate at this time frame for the same reason. Right now, it would appear that the slow movement of the system and the widespread rainfall would minimize the severe weather threat. But, that is certainly subject to change.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot