Enhanced Fire Danger Again Monday.

Several issues to deal with during the coming week. First is the ongoing fire weather concerns for the next couple of days; then will be the possibility of going from one extreme to another later this week as the pattern becomes very unsettled.

Fortunately, the winds will be diminishing tonight with a light N to NE wind by early Monday morning. Fair skies and the light winds together with the very dry conditions also add up to another chilly start to the day with most locations in the 30s first thing in the morning. Unfortunately, the light NE winds for the morning will become SE by afternoon and will be increasing to 10-20 mph during the afternoon. The more easterly wind component will keep temperatures somewhat below the levels of today, but the strength of the winds and a relative humidity dropping into the upper 20% range will still result in an enhanced fire danger situation.

Tuesday will have a howling S wind with wind speeds expected to be gusting to 35 or 40 mph which means another dangerous fire weather situation. Moisture will be gradually returning during the day and we expect partly cloudy afternoon skies along with somewhat higher humidity levels which will alleviate the fire danger somewhat.

The moisture will be more evident on Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies, gusty southerly winds although not as strong as on Tuesday, and at least a chance of showers or thunder. Rain still looks to be a good bet for Thursday as a cool front will be pushing through the state during the morning hours and the upper level support will be hanging back to the west. In fact, it is this upper level system that will be responsible for the unsettled weather for the rest of the week.

As mentioned yesterday, the longer range guidance has been going their separate ways regarding the location and intensity of this particular system. Today, there is better agreement but still enough of a difference for a lower confidence level than usual for this coming weekend. The map on the right shows the expected rainfall from 6PM Wed – 6PM Friday. As you can see, much of the state stands to receive a good soaking from this system and I would not be surprised if some locations wind up with too much too fast and local drainage issues may be a problem. There should at least be enough to provide some runoff for the area reservoirs which is badly needed. I just hope we do not go from drought to flood in a matter of a day or two.

With rain likely for Thu & Fri, it will also be cooler. But, as mentioned, there is additional uncertainty regarding the coming weekend. The position and intensity of the upper level system now appears to still be affecting our weather so have added rain chances for Saturday and there may be some lingering showers for Sunday as well.

So, fire weather concerns to start the week and the potential for heavy rains to end the week. Could get interesting so stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot