Tracking A System

A weak boundary is sliding southward across northern OK this morning and will stall near the I-40 corridor this morning.  Northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph will be common across northern OK for most of the day before the front retrogrades northward later tonight as a warm front.  We expect mostly cloudy conditions today with highs in the lower 60s.  A chance of storms will remain for the Tuesday time period and a few of these, if they form, could be severe.

The main focus of the forecast involves tracking a major upper level system that will move across the central U.S. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

A surface dry line will move across the state from the west to the east Tuesday afternoon and evening and will help to create a few severe storms for eastern Ok and western Arkansas.

Data has been a little more solid regarding the low level moisture return ahead of this system and would suggest a chance of severe storms for locations along and east of the highway 69-75 corridor Tuesday evening into the first few hours of Wednesday.  Current data does not produce a large amount of precipitation but the model output CAPE and lifted indices indicate a profile that would be supportive of severe storms across east central Ok and western Arkansas late Tuesday evening.  The pattern would support all modes of severe weather, including the threat of a tornado or two.  The actual output from the models remains somewhat low regarding the quantitative precipitation output but we'll keep a 50% chance of showers and storms for this period.

Before the main threat of severe weather unfolds Tuesday evening, moisture will rapidly return early Tuesday morning as a low level jet slides across the area.  This should result in a few elevated storms pre-dawn Tuesday.  Some of these storms would be capable of producing some small hail.  The latest data indicates the low level jet will be position to our west, and this means most of the early morning showers and storms may also be positioned to the west of our immediate area for the early Tuesday morning period.   Again, most of the storms would be elevated and only pose a hail threat for Tuesday morning.  The threat Tuesday afternoon and evening would result in super cell storms before the storms congeal into a complex of storms or possibly a line segment or two of storms.  

The Wednesday period should present cool but calm weather before another fast moving wave enters the region Friday.  This will result in a low pressure area forming across western OK Thursday and moving quickly across the state Friday.  If moisture returns, a fast moving system producing a few storms would be possible Friday afternoon or early evening.  Before all of this occurs, the winds Thursday will be increasing speeds from the south with temperature moving into the lower to mid-70s.  The fire danger Thursday will be very high across most of the area.  

The weekend currently appears dry and near normal before another system arrives early next week.