Windy, Chance of Storms Monday.

Since the only rain we are expecting this coming week will be on Monday, the QPF map on the right which is valid through Friday night represents an estimate of the area-wide precipitation that will occur on Monday. Although we will have another good chance of rain, most of it should be quite light; thus the light QPF amounts. However, this next system has some very strong dynamics associated with it as well as a cold pocket of air aloft. As a result, there may be a few strong storms develop late in the day Monday which would produce some isolated, locally heavier amounts as well as a chance of hail.

Those impressive dynamics will also result in strong southerly winds up to 35 mph and perhaps even more in gusts, so Monday will be quite windy. Ordinarily, this would be a set up for an outbreak of widespread severe weather, but despite the strength of those southerly winds, the deeper, better quality moisture will not have time to get back up here. The dew point temperature, which is an absolute measure of the amount of moisture in the air, will struggle to get much above 40 and that will be in a narrow ribbon just in advance of the Pacific cool front which will arrive Monday evening. Thus, some widespread showers with only a few embedded storms are currently anticipated.

The cloudy skies and showers in advance of the front will also help to limit the instability as surface temperatures should be confined to the 50s to near 60 for daytime highs. The winds and clouds will also keep us from cooling off much tonight with a morning low near 40 expected.

Since this is a Pacific system, the air behind it is drier but not cooler so we expect lots of sunshine for the middle part of the week along with very mild temperatures which will actually be much above normal for this time of year. A stronger cool front is still on tap to arrive during the day Thursday followed by a brisk northerly wind and cooler conditions for Friday and to start the day Saturday. But, our winds should be quickly returning to a southerly direction during the weekend resulting in another quick warm-up.

For several days now we have been watching some potentially much cooler air for the early part of the following week. The longer range guidance has been flip-flopping on that scenario recently so until we see some better consistency in subsequent model solutions, will not get too excited about that possibility just yet.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot