Weekend Outlook and Beyond

We've just about seen it all this past week: snow, fog, thunderstorms, blah rain, sunshine, and mild temperatures. To top it off, we have more rain chances into Saturday morning. A storm system is located to our southwest across the Rio Grande Valley that will swing enough moisture to the north for a moderate chance of light rain. It won't likely begin until after rush hour on Friday and won't amount to much in northeastern Oklahoma. Unfortunately, the combination of clouds, rain, and northerly winds will zap our mild spell, giving our weekend a bit of a gloomy start.

The cold air and moisture is out of phase enough that we shouldn't see any real wintry precipitation as the storm system pushes east, away from us. It might be a close call, but I'm calling for temperatures in the 40s the entire time we have any significant moisture in our area.

Once we get through a soggy Saturday, we are on our way into pleasant President's Day Weekend weather. Sunshine on Sunday and mild temperatures on Monday are expected. No complaints there – especially for those who have that extra day off!

Even as another storm system swings through Monday night into Tuesday, no major dip in our temperatures is expected through much of next week. Does this mean we can cruise on into spring without any other interruptions by Old Man Winter?

If you've lived in Oklahoma long enough, you know we are prone to the worst snowstorms in late February and early March (or even late March like a couple years ago!) Our long-range models are not only keeping an active jet stream in places, but show signs of another Arctic plunge by the month's end. That combination is what we look for in our major snowstorm set-ups. Of course, it's way too early to say that will come to fruition here in Oklahoma, but I wanted to give you a heads up about that potential starting in a little over a week from now.

For those just ready for consistently warmer weather, the Climate Prediction Center offers you some hope. Their latest 30-day outlook for March shows a strong trend for much above-normal temperatures for most of the country. You can see that map above. Even if March does begin like a lion, there are promising signs in the long-term, synoptic scale pattern that we will see a mild start to the spring season. Their 90-day outlook also maintains that warm forecast.

As I've said before, don't let your guard down yet, but we are entering the final stretch of winter in Oklahoma – often the most active time for us. Enjoy the rather mild weather beyond Saturday in the meantime!

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