Here Comes Old Man Winter

We've been saying it for the past month – something's gotta give. It looks like we are finally having a real hiatus from this unusually warm pattern for the winter. Our first significant Arctic blast is upon us and these frigid temperatures will be the big weather story for the next 36 hours or so. Before the cold air mass fully leaves, another storm system moving along the southern subtropical jet stream will move in, giving us that dreaded (or exciting) combination of moisture and sub-freezing air.

This may end up being the coldest air we experience all winter. The source of the air mass is in and near the Arctic Circle, hence, the Arctic blast that is underway. The cold front moving through our region Friday afternoon is the leading edge of that cold air. Much like last year, we know that this cold, dense and sometimes shallow air mass is hard to erode. Once it's in place, it takes time and a nice, prolonged southerly surface wind to bring in warmer temperatures. Our cold air will settle in tonight with wind chill values as cold as 0°. Yikes! Despite some sunshine, Saturday's temperatures will likely stay below freezing. Winds will die down later in the day, but temperatures will again plummet into the lower teens by Sunday morning.

All eyes are on the forecast for early next week. That quick-moving storm system won't be overly-strong, but will spread some problematic moisture into our sub-freezing air starting in the late evening hours on Sunday. There are a lot of factors that could altar the impacts for us, but the computer models are settling in on a consistent message –that a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is likely through Monday morning. As I mentioned before, Arctic air is often hard to displace. Despite southerly winds on Sunday, cold enough air should be in place to bring us the frozen variety of precipitation for a period of time. As warm air overrides the cold air at the surface, more of an icy mixture may fall. As such, snow accumulations, if any, will be rather light. Even with ground temperatures still in the 40s (see map above), bridges and overpasses may become slick and hazardous for that Monday morning commute. If we didn't have a nice southerly wind, this would likely be a more significant winter storm.

Temperatures should eventually rise above freezing after sunrise Monday morning with any lingering sub-freezing temperatures across far northeastern Oklahoma. Travel will likely be impacted for about an ~18 hour window late Sunday night through Monday midday.

Warmer weather returns by midweek as a warmer and moister air mass replaces this drier, Arctic one. Showers and even a thunderstorm are possible by midweek.

This will be a brief visit from Old Man Winter, but it my feel like a slap in the face after this season so far! Bundle up this weekend and be sure to tune into Channel 6 or Newson6.com for the latest winter weather updates! I'll be sure to have updates on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page!