Active Pattern Ahead

The clouds will again be the dominate feature today with highs in the upper 40s.  A few sun breaks may be possible early this morning, but we expect mostly cloudy conditions with a slight chance of showers this evening.

We are tracking three systems for the next several days including a slight chance of some wintry precipitation for Sunday night into early Monday morning.   

The first system will move across the northwestern and southern part of the state tonight into early Friday bringing a chance of some light showers across the southern third of the viewing area.  A few showers could approach the area late this afternoon into early evening but higher chances for southern OK will continue through the overnight hours.  Some light snow will be possible across Northwestern Ok later today, but the temperature profile across most of our area will only support showers.   Residents south of I-40 will have a much higher rain chance early Friday morning but the temperature profile in this area is expected to remain above freezing.

The weekend appears very cold as a surface ridge of high pressure brings the cold air southward into the state with Saturday highs in the mid to upper 30s and Sunday highs in the lower 40s.

The next system will be arriving Sunday into Monday.  This system has been somewhat problematic in the data but things appear to be coming to a consensus in the model data suggesting a high chance or precipitation, including a small window for sleet and snow for a few hours early Monday morning.   

EURO data has been the colder model compared to the GFS with euro profiles during the past three days supporting snow Monday across the northern part of the state.  Both 850 and surface temperatures in the EURO data have been at or below freezing for the Tulsa area indicating a snow sounding but the surface winds have been from the south in the data.  I mentioned the odd nature of this southerly wind yesterday.  We rarely see wintry precipitation with a south wind.

The latest incoming data from the EURO continues to warm the profile as warm air advection begins to impact the region early Monday morning.  

The GFS data has been slower and a little warmer, with the exception of the early Monday morning time periods.  Yesterday's GFS data was  supporting a small window with cold air supporting snow changing to sleet and then to rain by midmorning Monday as warm air advection begins to bring warmer air across the state.  This morning's latest data ( the 00z) also indicates this possibility will remain in the forecast.  Any wintry precipitation across Northeastern OK early Monday morning would be minor and would more than likely only warrant Advisory criteria. The data will change a few more times between now and Monday, so please check back often for updates.