Good Chance of Rain This Week.

Notice the statewide map to the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet. This is showing the strongest wind gusts so far today and as is usually the case the strongest winds are in the western portions of the state and the weakest winds are in the SE corner. In fact, wind gusts in excess of 60 mph have been common for the more SW counties. The reason for these strong winds is a very strong storm system at the surface and aloft that is moving eastward across KS.

The moisture ahead of this system has already been scoured out by the strong SW winds ahead of the trailing cool front. As a result, any threat of rain will be much further east where there is a threat of significant severe weather overnight tonight. Also, on the backside of the system there will be a slight chance of light rain along the OK/KS state line for the early night time hours.

As the winds shift to the NW behind the cool front this evening, those NW winds will still be strong and gusty for several hours but they will be subsiding as the night wears on. In fact, a light westerly wind under fair skies is expected by early Monday morning. Light winds and sunny skies will make for a pretty nice Monday with temperatures continuing above normal. Tuesday will also see above normal temperatures, but an increase in cloud cover will lead to a chance of rain by Tuesday night.

This next system has not been handled very well by the computer models and the latest guidance is now indicating that the main storm center will be further north and moving much more slowly than was the case just 24 hours ago. As a result, the rain shield will be spreading further northward for Tuesday night and Wednesday with some showers possibly lingering into late Thursday as well. The heavier rainfall totals may well exceed an inch for the more southern counties which will have the best chance of receiving a good soaking, but many other locations should also receive some useful rain from this system. The second map on the right illustrates the rainfall potential through Friday and if you compare this to the one I posted yesterday, you will notice that the rain area has been shifted further northward. Notice, also, that this is going to be a rain event…there is no threat of any wintry weather the way things stand now.

Wednesday will be cooler due to the clouds, rain, and a NE wind. In general though, temperatures for the coming week will be running above normal. Saturday into Sunday morning should see a pretty good cool-down with a dry cold front arriving by Friday evening, but this system also looks to be dry.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot