A Series of Fronts

We're going to make a few changes to the forecast based on the latest numerical guidance.  The net impact will be to bring the colder air back to the region for Saturday before a slight warming trend for Sunday and Monday.   

If you've been reading the blog over the past few days, you'll recall how chaotic the models have been these past few days.  We've seen more flipping in the extended than most folks will see at a Kiwanis's pancake breakfast.  

The first front will slide across the area today around the 10am to noon hour and will keep a north breeze across the area for the afternoon with highs in upper 40s in northern Ok and the lower to mid-50s across southern sections.  

This front will slide northward into southern Kansas Friday morning and south winds will create highs in the lower to mid-50s Friday before the boundary moves back southward Friday night into Saturday morning.  Colder air will have a shot of moving back southward and we have knocked the temperatures down for the Saturday period.  The shallow air mass will play havoc with our temp forecast.  Some locations south of I-40 could easily end up in the 50s.   Locations across extreme northern OK and southeastern Kansas may stay in the upper 30s with north winds and cloudy conditions.  Arctic or shallow fronts can also mix out during the day if the air mass is extremely shallow and temperatures can make a late day rally before sunset.  All of these scenarios are possible for Saturday, but the one that will probably occur will keep Tulsa in the lower 40s and areas south of I-40 in the lower 50s.   There is a chance the Tulsa temperatures could stay in the upper 30s for most of the day Saturday.

The extended into early next week is a mess.  There's no clear cut winner and consequently there is no clear cut winner for our extended forecast.  The odds are stacked against us and changes will be likely as we move closer to early next week. 

The EURO was continuing to dig the H5 system into the desert and then lift it out across our area Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing storm chances followed by colder air.  The GFS was faster and more northward and left us high and dry.  

The EURO is now back to suggesting the system may split with most energy to the south.  This would leave our area mainly dry during the Tuesday and Wednesday periods.  The latest and greatest GFS is also more south with the main energy but expands the precip northward into the state Wednesday.  This seems very plausible.  The EURO ensembles continue to support the upper level wave, but what happens at the surface is anyone's guess at this point.  I have to think the EUROs previous support of digging the system across the southwest may be the winner, but the question remains:  why the inconsistency in the run to run output from this usually superior model?  The GFS may be the big winner with precip across our area Wednesday. The GFS ensembles (21 members and the  EUROs 51 members) are also supporting the h5 wave Tuesday and Wednesday.  Sometimes this business drives me nuts.  Hang in there with us.  We're going to struggle with this one for a while.   

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