Seasonal Air Today

The dry cold air is resulting in very cold temperatures this morning across northern OK and southern Kansas.  Readings in the middle to upper teens are common due to the light winds, clear sky, and dry air. A return of southwestern surface winds today along with the departing trough to the east will allow for a moderate warm up today with highs in the upper 40s.  Plenty of sunshine will be expected across the state. 

Almost all data supports this boundary sliding back over the region Thursday morning around 10am and then returning Friday morning before moving back southward late Friday afternoon or evening.  The air mass to the north of the boundary will still be cold but should moderate over the next few days.  This means readings on the north side of the boundary will be in the upper 40s or lower 50s while readings south of the front could move into the upper 50s or even the lower 60s. 

A surface low Friday into Saturday combined with some minor upper level support will give far eastern OK and western Arkansas a slight chance of a shower or two, but the higher chances will be well east of the state.  We'll stick a 10% pop on the map for the Friday evening and Saturday morning time periods for eastern OK but this is a stretch.  

The GFS and EURO continue to offer a wave for early to middle of next week but there has been no run to run consistency in the data.  The EURO had been digging the H5 system into the southwest desert region and bringing a healthy chance of thunderstorms to the area Tuesday or Wednesday.  The GFS had been more open and progressive with the wave and pushed the system into the Midwest or Missouri valley by Tuesday.    

Today the models continue to offer more flipping than a pancake breakfast.   We take the lead of the EURO with a chance of storms Monday into Tuesday  followed by another robust cool down Wednesday.  The confidence in this scenario must remain extremely low.  

Long term:  Once again the arctic oscillation is trending to the negative, but seems to have more support in the ensembles and also the North American Oscillation.  This continues to support a major pattern change in bringing much colder air to the nation during the latter half of January and the first of February.  I am reminded that about 2 weeks ago, some of the ensemble members were also hinting at a negative oscillation, but only a glancing blow of cold air has arrived in the past 7 days.  We will monitor conditions across the Arctic and NW Yukon for any signs of a big cold air mass moving and staying southward. 

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Alan