Rain Near Tulsa

The h5 low is moving across North Texas today and is spreading rain northward into the state.  The rain shield will abruptly end near the I-44 corridor meaning locations near and north of this boundary will receive no rain while areas to the south will see the precipitation.  The Tulsa metro will be right on the northern edge of this rain event and could easily miss out from the system.  I know a lot of folks just like a "yes or no" regarding rain:  will it or will it not rain?  Unfortunately I can't be that specific for the Tulsa metro.  I'll have to keep the dreaded 50-50 pop on the map for the Tulsa area today.  Rain is likely along and south of a line from Ardmore to Okmulgee to Muskogee to Tahlequah.  Some moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible across far southeastern OK and Northeast Texas.  If we see any precip in the Tulsa metro, it will be relatively light.  Locations northwest of Tulsa will have almost no chance of seeing precipitation.  This system will be exiting the influence of our area by early afternoon.  

Winds have been very strong near the showers and storms this morning across southern OK with some occasional 40 and 50 mph winds.  The low pressure area across Texas is very strong and combined with some dry air across OK the wind speeds have been on the high side.  No severe storms are expected in the Tulsa area, but one or two could become briefly strong to severe across North Texas and extreme SE Ok.  

Temperatures today will be a direct influence of the cloud cover and the result of rainfall.  I have elected to keep the Tulsa temp well below the computer numbers with highs just under 50 to account for the lowest possible temps in the event of some light rain.  If we don't get any rain, the temps may move into the lower 50s.  Locations across southern OK will stay in the mid 40s.  

Wednesday the highs will top out in the mid or upper 50s but a stout cold front will arrive Wednesday evening bringing much colder air to the region through Friday.  As the colder air sweeps southward, a few flurries may be possible from SE Kansas, NE Ok, SW Missouri, and NW Ark.  I'll make mention of this possibility but will not hammer this probability.  There will be a slight chance of some very light snowfall accumulation across the extreme sections of NE Ok and NW Arkansas but this probably remain on the low side.  Stay tuned for more details to follow later today regarding the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning time period.  

The trajectory of the upper air flow will move the cold air quickly eastward for the weekend. 

But we now have some controversy on Monday period.  The extended models (both of them) have not be very good lately, but the EURO has the better track record.  At this point, we're leaning toward the more historically reliable EURO, but I wouldn't put all the money on the outcome at this point. We'll keep Sunday and Monday dry at this point and warm.  Stay tuned.

Texas Snow:

Yesterdays snow in the Permian Basin of Texas yielded about 7 inches in Midland.  This brings their winter total to around 15 inches.  Contrast that report with our current snowfall in Tulsa for the season:  a trace.  What a difference a year makes.  At least...so far.