Good Chance of Rain Tuesday.

Notice the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) map on the right which is valid through 6PM Tuesday. Obviously, there is a sharp precipitation gradient right along I-44 with locations to the NW expected to receive little or no rain and locations to the SE expected to receive up to an inch or more of rain. This is due to a system that will be moving across Texas and the more southern location of the storm track places the northern edge of the precipitation shield right along I-44. Fortunately, temperatures will be above freezing so it will be a rain event.

Temperatures will be a tough call though with the clouds, northerly winds and the precipitation all having an effect. Right now it appears that the more NW counties should see some sun, little or no rain, and daytime highs reaching the lower 50s so another very mild day. For the more SE counties, the rain cooled air should hold daytime highs in the 40s. As mentioned, we expect to be above freezing when the precipitation starts so no travel issues are anticipated.

This system will be moving on eastward with clearing skies on Wednesday and a NW wind. Later in the day, a cold front will arrive with much stronger northerly winds expected through Wednesday night and into the day Thursday. This will usher in much colder conditions with lows in the 20s and a daytime high only near 40 for Thursday. Some snow flurries are also possible but little or no accumulation is currently anticipated.

Friday will then be very cold to start but a return to light southerly winds should moderate temperatures somewhat to end the day. A much weaker boundary is now expected to arrive on Saturday shifting our winds briefly back to a N or NW direction. But not for long as a return to southerly winds is expected for Sunday along with moderating temperatures.

For those of you who are familiar with some of the various model guidance products, you may be wondering why I have made no mention of precipitation this weekend as the latest GFS model is showing a strong snow signal for Saturday into early Sunday. This GFS solution is a complete flip from all earlier guidance and the other longer range products such as the European model do not support that solution. So, until we see better consistency that solution is regarded as an outlier and is being ignored for now. Obviously, we will be watching closely to see how subsequent runs handle the situation.

So, for now, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot