Cold Tonight, Then Warming Up.

Despite how much cooler it feels like today, temperatures are actually at or slightly above normal for this time of year. And, except for tonight, the mild weather will continue with above normal temperatures expected for the rest of the week and going into the coming weekend.

As mentioned, tonight will be quite cold. Today's brisk NW winds have brought in some very dry air and those winds will be calming down early tonight and even back to a light SE direction by morning. It will be close, but right now I don't think the return flow will be in time to keep temperatures from dropping into the lower 20s and possibly some teens in the colder valleys.

After that, brisk southerly winds for Tuesday along with lots of sunshine should result in daytime temperatures back into the 50s. A weak boundary will move across the state Tuesday night with a more NW wind for Wednesday. But, this system will not do much more than provide a wind shift as temperatures will still be well into the 50s along with lots of sunshine for Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest days of this week with brisk S to SW winds and daytime highs back into the 60s. Mostly sunny skies will also be the general rule with only some occasional high level cirrus clouds. The only real issue will be an enhanced fire danger situation due to gusty winds, warm temperatures, and low humidity levels for Tuesday and again for Thursday and Friday.

After that, another cold front will be arriving Friday night, and will cool us off going into the coming weekend. A little more moisture will be available by then, but it still looks to be a dry system with just a few more clouds. The northerly winds will bring temperatures back down to near normal or slight above normal levels though.

After that is when things could get a little more interesting. The longer range guidance has been hinting at some very cold air trying to move into the lower 48 during the latter part of next week. Also, one of the longer range solutions suggests a system by early next week that would pose a threat of wintry precipitation. So far, those solutions have not exhibited much run to run consistency which just creates additional uncertainty regarding if/when/where we get some wintry weather. At this time of year, things can change in a hurry so we are keeping a close eye on those potential developments.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot