Warming Air Returns

Good morning!

A warming trend will begin today and continue through Saturday before a cold front arrives Sunday bringing colder air for early next week.

Our main issues involve a weak boundary that may slide across northern OK and southern Kansas Friday, and then what to do with the Sunday and Monday system.  The EURO and GFS was totally out of phase with a winner taking all the marbles. Today the models are a little closer together on bringing the boundary into the area Sunday, but the magnitude of the cold air is different.  

One of the models indicates a shallow arctic intrusion southward into the southern plains including Oklahoma ( EURO) with the other model offering a mild start to the new year ( GFS).  I started trending the numbers down yesterday much colder than the GFS but in all reality much warmer than the EURO would suggest.  I have continued to lean toward the EURO based solely on the approaching climate periods of early January which would suggest a intrusion of cold air, but the current pattern doesn't lend a lot of confidence in this scenario.  

The short term looks great.  We'll move into the upper 50s and lower 60s today with plenty of sunshine and southwest winds around 10 to 15 mph.  A weak short-mid length wave will dive southward out of the Rockies tonight and throw a few clouds in our direction no precipitation is expected. 

Another clipper type wave will drop down through the northern high plains into the Midwest Thursday night into Friday allowing for some snow potential in the upper Midwest and the Ohio River Valley.  This Thursday pm and Friday morning wave may be strong enough to push a surface boundary into the northern third of the state allowing for a weak wind shift Friday but I'm unsure about how long this shift would remain in the area.  Temperatures will not be impacted so it may be a mute point anyway. 

The fire danger may be slowing increasing over the next few days with low RH and breezy southwest winds during the afternoon.  We've been blessed with some recent moisture, but the vegetation is drying.  Caution is advised for Thursday and Saturday.

 To summarize: a warming trend through Saturday and colder air early next week.

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