Cold Week Ahead.

As mentioned in the morning discussion, this is a complicated forecast pattern over the next few days but fortunately the guidance so far today has brought things into a little better focus. There are still some issues that need to be resolved but just to illustrate the point notice the two maps on the right. The top one shows computer model generated snowfall totals based on data received Friday night. Not sure if you can see the contours very well or not, but at that time this particular model was showing well over a foot of snow would have fallen over portions of Green Country on Monday. The bottom map shows the same computer model but from data received as of early this afternoon and you can clearly see that the snowfall amounts have dropped off considerably. This latter solution is more in keeping with some of the other guidance that has been received and therefore gives us more confidence in the forecast for Monday. There are still some issues regarding snowfall amounts, placement, and timing but the trend is certainly towards lesser precipitation amounts.

As of this evening, most of the rain is moving out and will be confined to the extreme S and SE by early Sunday morning. Colder air is moving in as the rain is moving out but temperatures will stay above freezing for those areas that have some lingering showers. Thus, no winter weather worries are expected for Sunday. It will certainly be cold though with cloudy skies and brisk northerly winds.

A storm system in the southern Rockies is the real trouble maker in the forecast and that system is still expected to eject eastward on Monday and Tuesday. That will be spreading more moisture this way so that rain and showers will be moving back northward for Sunday night and Monday before all the precipitation moves on eastward Tuesday. It will be during that time frame that a rain/snow/sleet mix will be possible and some areas may yet pick up and inch or two of the white stuff. A few flurries will remain possible into Tuesday morning before the clouds clear out for the latter part of the week.

And, the rest of the week looks to be much below normal with respect to temperatures. In fact, another cold front should arrive in time to keep us cold through the coming weekend, but at least it also looks to be a dry system….at least for now.

As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot