Cold Week Ahead.

This morning started off the coldest we have been so far this season, and despite the sunshine a light northerly breeze has kept us much below normal so far this afternoon. Notice the map on the right, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, which shows just how cold it was to start the day. Tuesday morning will not be quite so cold, but we will still be below normal in the morning as well as during the afternoon. A stronger north wind for much of the day Tuesday will help hold temperatures down despite lots of sunshine again on Tuesday.

Wednesday will see a return to southerly winds during the day, but the clear skies and light winds first thing that morning will make for another very cold start. Temperatures are expected to moderate rather nicely though for Wednesday afternoon and to start the day on Thursday before another cold front arrives later Thursday. This front will also be a dry system but brisk northerly winds will once again usher in some chilly conditions with daytime highs only in the lower 40s for Friday afternoon.

Then, it starts getting interesting.

So far, the longer range guidance from both the GFS and the European models has been consistently bringing a rather strong storm system out of the Southern Rockies and across the Southern Plains for Saturday and Sunday. As is of ten the case at these time ranges, there are some timing and intensity differences. But, there is a consistent precipitation signal starting across western Oklahoma Saturday morning and working its way eastward across the state during the day and not ending till sometime Sunday morning.

At issue is the timing of the precipitation and the precipitation type. The GFS is a little faster which is a typical bias in these type situations and the GFS is also a little stronger with colder air aloft moving overhead while we are still receiving some precipitation. If that verifies, then some wintry precipitation is not out of the question by Saturday night. But, the Euro model is not currently supportive of that solution. It is still wet for Saturday, but moves everything through more quickly and moves the precipitation out before the coldest air aloft arrives which would effectively eliminate the chance of wintry precipitation.

At this point, the trends are more supportive of a cold rain on Saturday ending by early Sunday morning before much if any wintry precipitation can get going. That will be followed by more cold air for Sunday and Monday.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot