Warmer Air Today and Tomorrow

Wednesday, November 23rd 2011, 5:30 am
By: Alan Crone

Expect sunny and mild conditions today with highs in the mid 60s.  The morning fog will be dense in some locations.  Thanksgiving appears windy and warm.

Dense fog has formed this morning across portions of the state and will last through the early morning hours.  Sunny conditions will be likely with highs in the lower to mid 60s across eastern OK and some upper 60s likely across the western half of the state.  Light southwest winds in the 10 mph range will be common today but stronger winds will be expected Thursday and Friday in advance of the next storm system. 

Temperatures for Thanksgiving will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with gusty south winds at 15 to 25 mph.  Low level moisture will be moving back into the region Friday morning and we expect mostly to partly cloudy conditions Friday with morning lows near 50s and highs in the upper 60s.   

The next system doesn't appear to move across the area until late Friday night and early Saturday morning.  This may be great timing for most of the activities that will occur Friday, including most of the Friday night high school playoff games.  The model data supports the front nearing the area around midnight and would be quickly exiting the state by 10am Saturday morning.  Rain and storms will be likely during this period, but current model parameters do not support a major severe weather threat.  Cape values will be suppressed more southward but the dynamics of the system could produce a few strong storms.  

The air mass behind the system is problematic from a forecasting standpoint.  At first glance the machine numbers appear correct for a pacific origin air mass, but the raw output from the buf files give us a little more confidence in undercutting the machine numbers quite a bit.  We'll keep the highs in the mid 40s for Saturday, even though the "official highs" may occur early Saturday morning as the temps are falling out of the lower 50s into the 40s. 

 The cooler air will moderate Sunday, but another stout looking front will approach Tuesday, but with no precip chances for this forecast package.