Monday, November 21st 2011, 3:06 pm
More heavy rainfall is headed our way for the evening through the night tonight on top of what has already been some locally heavy rainfall for some locations last night. The 24 hour rainfall map on the right courtesy of the OK Mesonet shows some locally heavy rains have already occurred in the extreme SE counties. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are likely before it ends by early Tuesday morning. Unfortunately, some locations may well end up with at least twice that much and flooding will be a possibility. Despite the cold air at the surface, much warmer air aloft will support thunderstorms and some of those will be capable of dropping not only heavy rains but also hail so there is a severe threat.
Temperatures will be going nowhere today or tonight with light northerly winds, cloudy skies, and the rain. A stronger NW wind on Tuesday should gradually clear the skies from the W to E by later in the day. By Wednesday morning, clear skies, light winds, and residual surface moisture from the recent rains could lead to a cold, foggy start followed by a nice rebound.
Thanksgiving Day will be warmer and rather windy along with abundant sunshine. The strong southerly winds will be in response to the next storm system coming our way which still looks to be on schedule for a Friday arrival. There remain some timing differences, but showers and storms look to be a good bet for Friday.
The coming weekend is still somewhat questionable. Gusty northerly winds and much cooler conditions are a given for both Saturday and Sunday, but there remains the question of any lingering clouds or light showers that may extend into Saturday. Those questions should be resolved with the next few model runs.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.
Dick Faurot
November 21st, 2011
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