A Cool Afternoon

Expect mostly sunny and cool conditions today with highs in the lower or mid 50s. 

The clouds cleared away from the area around sunset yesterday afternoon and allowed our surface temperatures to drop into the upper 20s and lower 30s this morning.  A freeze warning is currently underway for the next hour or so before the south winds return and temperatures move into the lower and mid 50s this afternoon.  Sunshine should be the dominate sky feature today and for most of tomorrow. 

We're already spotting our next big weather maker currently off the Pac Northwest.  This will cause the pressure to fall in the Rockies soon and this will result in strong southerly winds Friday and Saturday.  Wind advisories may be required Friday as winds gust near 35 mph by midday and early afternoon.  

The south winds should be able to bring back sufficient low level moisture before our next front arrives Sunday, but current data supports only a slight chance of showers or storms with the actual front passage Sunday.  Bufkit data does support a slight increase of cape values late Saturday evening and early Sunday morning and this may support a few storms with the frontal passage.  

The temperatures for Sunday could be colder than I currently have on the forecast.  Adjustments may be made in subsequent updates. 

The better chance for rain and storms will arrive Tuesday as the above mentioned upper level system approaches the state while the surface boundary is draped across the area.  This pattern can produce heavy rainfall and current data continues to support that possibility. 

Extended data from the GFS continues to bring the system mainly into the area Tuesday and will keep the Wednesday and Thursday period pleasant.  There is some concern of another front arriving Saturday with a significant cool down. I'll post more about this scenario in the next few days. 

I think the pattern is about to undergo another change that would begin a serious southerly migration of the northern stream.  This would be typical for late November and early December and means more frequent cold air intrusions for the next 3 weeks. 

The La Nina pattern would also support a southern stream system about every 4 to 6 days, so the active weather pattern will more than likely continue for the southern plains.

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