Tracking A System

A strong cold front is moving across the region this morning and will bring a chance of showers or storms along with cooler air and gusty north winds.  Highs today will be in the 60s this morning falling into the upper 50s this afternoon.  Temperatures across southern OK will move in to the 70s before falling into the mid 60s this afternoon. Take the jacket and possibly the rain gear.    

I've been out of the office for the past two days draining a couple of vacation days before they get away from me at the end of the year.  But I'm back just in time as a strong front is moving into the region this morning bringing a chance of showers and storms along with much cooler air for a few days.

The upper level system is sliding across the middle part of the nation this morning and is shoving a frontal boundary into the state.  The air mass ahead of the front is basically capped ( a layer of warm air aloft) that will suppress most pre frontal convection.  But if a shower or storm could form ahead of the front, some small hail would be possible.  Most of the showers or storms will form behind the boundary later tonight when another upper level wave rotates across the southern plains.  Some models are producing a nice band of moderate rain Wednesday evening into Thursday morning before the wave moves eastward Thursday evening.  This would be great news for those who receive the rainfall. The higher pops for the second round of Wed pm into Thursday should be just a hair south of us, but close enough to keep a high chance of rain in the forecast for this period. 

The temperatures should drop quite a bit with this boundary.  Yesterdays highs in the mid 80s will be replaced with afternoon temps in the upper 50s.  The official highs will occur early this morning across Northern OK and early afternoon across southern OK.  These numbers will be in the lower or mid 60s but the majority of the region will be in the upper 50s by later today along with gusty north winds around 10 to 25 mph.  

 The weekend continues to be a little controversial.  As I wrote last week, the EURO has been trying to close off an upper level low over the region this weekend while the GFS is progressive and does not develop this weather feature near the area.  The results of the two solutions are significant.  The EURO would support a chance of showers Sunday and possibly Monday while the GFS supports a nice fall weekend that would extend into early next week.

 Our forecast is leaning heavily toward the progressive GFS, but as you well know, things can, do, and will change when dealing with the weather.  The only advice I'll give regarding the weekend:  check back often for updates.