Our main issue today will be how high the temps can move before the front arrives this afternoon. A second issue will be the coverage of showers and storms this evening as the front slides across eastern OK.
The front is already located south of Tulsa this morning but will move back northward this afternoon as the pressure falls to the west. This boundary should make it to the OK-Kansas state line bringing very warm conditions to southeastern OK with highs just shy of 90, while extreme northern OK and southern Kansas will experience temps in the mid 70s. The Tulsa metro should make it back to the mid 80s before the boundary moves over the region early this evening.
The latest and greatest data is surprisingly wet behind the boundary, which is a major change from last Friday. The data is supporting mainly post frontal precipitation but there will remain a slight chance of storms along the boundary that could be strong to severe. The higher coverage will end up along and east of highway 69-75, but we'll not go overboard on the pops for this system and keep them around the 50% range for Tulsa, but higher pops will be likely for eastern sections.
Gusty north winds will develop this evening as the boundary crosses your area. The front should move over the Tulsa metro between 5pm and 7pm and then rapidly sweep across the area before 9pm. The window for showers and storms will be from 5pm through 2am across the area.
The weather for the Tuesday and Thursday periods will be unseasonably cool with morning lows in the 40s and highs mainly in the 60s. Wednesday the daytime highs may barley reach 60 if one follows the EURO data, or if one chooses to place faith in the GFS buf numbers the readings may be in the upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Regardless, we think the cool down will be very noticeable compared to the unseasonably warm weather we've been experiencing this past week.
The next system barely brushes the southern plains next Sunday and Monday, but there's no doubt this solution will flip around a few times between now and then.
The system arriving tonight will not be a significant precipitation maker, but a few locations across the eastern section of the state may pick up a quarter of an inch or so.