Near record level heat this afternoon, bright sunny skies, gusty SW winds, humidity levels dropping into the 20-30% range during the heat of the day.....it all adds up to a high fire danger situation for today. The record high for this date is 93 here in Tulsa and we will be close to that as upper 80s to lower 90s are expected for much of the state. Couple that with the drought situation and the vegetation going dormant due to the season and the dryness and fires can easily get out of hand.
There is some hope for rain though as a stronger cold front will be arriving during the afternoon/evening hours of Monday. Ahead of that, a weak boundary will drop to just south of the OK/KS state line tonight which will result in a much weaker E to NE surface wind along and north of that boundary and southerly winds south of the boundary. At least the weaker wind flow will help with the fire situation and will also allow overnight temperatures to drop into the 50s tonight.
That boundary will bounce around on Monday until re-enforced by a surge of much cooler air moving this way later in the day. Although moisture remains limited, the flow aloft looks to be favorable enough to produce some showers and storms for late Monday into the night time hours. Some of these storms will be capable of marginally severe wind/hail. They will be primarily E of Hwy 75, will be moving through rather quickly, but some lucky folks could pick up a quick 1/2" or so of rain.
After that, it will be windy and much cooler for Tuesday with NW winds of 15-25 creating another high fire danger. This system will bring with it what will be by far the coolest air of the season. In fact, it still appears that some patchy frost may occur Wednesday morning in the cooler valley locations that are protected by the wind. Frost and/or a light freeze looks more likely for Thursday morning when temperatures will be dropping into the low-mid 30s.
That will be followed by a return to southerly winds and a warming trend going into the coming weekend. The next system that may bring a chance of rain is not expected till early the following week.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.