Mild and Warm Today

Monday, October 3rd 2011, 5:15 am
By: News On 6

We're seeing some signs of the upper air pattern beginning to change as the ridge currently in place begins sliding slowly eastward and the west coast trough starts to impact the western third of the nation.  This ridge and trough displacement will provide gusty south winds by the middle of the week and help to bring up low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  The actual output from the models regarding this system is going to change several times between now and this weekend, and has already changed quite a few times in the past 3 days.  The early runs all suggested a good chance of showers and storms Friday into the weekend, but the latest runs have backed off this solution by keeping most of the energy to the north.  This flipping of the output will continue, but the pattern does support a chance of showers and storms this weekend into early next week.  We'll keep a 30% pop for Saturday and Sunday, but this will no doubt change during subsequent forecast cycles.  Stay tuned.

 If for some reason we do miss out on the shower or storm chances this weekend, the low level moisture will be even better for the next system that will arrive some time next week.   

Temperatures are expected to be above the seasonal average by several degrees with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.   

The issue of a high fire danger will be returning soon.  Many locations are no longer under official burn bans, but I would be extremely cautious when burning brush over the next 48 hours.  Some counties may eventually be back in the burn ban status before the week is over.  We'll keep you posted.