Highs today are expected in the mid to upper 90s with some hotter readings across southern OK. Fall like weather will arrive Wednesday and especially Thursday with a chance of showers and storms and cooler air.
A few showers and storms formed earlier this morning with a weak upper level disturbance that moved across the state. Our main issues today will be the Ozone Alert for the Tulsa metro and the elevated fire danger.
We're back to summer today ahead of a boundary that will move across the region later tonight through pre-dawn Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across Northeastern OK with some triple digits possible across the southern sections of the state. The chance for pre-frontal surface based thunderstorm activity will be slim as the capping inversion is expected to remain strong through the afternoon, but it's not impossible to see an isolated storm this afternoon. Once the boundary pushes south of the region Wednesday morning, gusty northeast winds will keep the high Wednesday afternoon in the lower 80s with a chance of a few scattered showers or storms behind the boundary.
Thursday and Friday the boundary will be re-enforced with a surge of cool air. The raw NAM fields indicate the north winds will increase speeds to near 30 mph by 6pm Wednesday as the second surge of cooler air arrives. A mid level disturbance will move over the cooler air and scattered showers will be likely Thursday and possibly Friday.
The bufkit data indicates a high in the upper 50s and lower 60s Thursday afternoon due to the clouds and possible showers.
Saturday the EURO and GFS both suggest a return to southerly winds with a modest increase of low level moisture. A few more scattered showers and storms will be possible, more so Saturday according to the EURO data and a slight chance will remain Sunday.
Maria continues to be located near and north of Cuba, but the upper air pattern will not allow this system to move into the East Coast. The storm will soon turn northward and accelerate into the higher latitudes of the Atlantic.
The fire danger will remain elevated across eastern OK today with high fire danger conditions continuing across the central and western portion of the state. Weather conditions will not improve greatly today regarding fire weather spread and behavior. It could be argued the fire danger may remain conditionally high Wednesday due to the increase of wind speeds from the northeast. The fire danger issues will be lessening Thursday into the weekend due to the expected precipitation across portions of the area.