A large complex of severe storms rolled across eastern Kansas and Missouri overnight. This complex has pushed an outflow boundary southward across the state line into northern OK and a few showers or storms have formed early this morning along and behind this boundary. These showers and storms are not expected to last long and I'll only include the mention for the morning hours.
The temperature will continue to be the headliner today with highs from 105 to 107 with raw NAM numbers slightly higher. The role of the morning outflow may take the edge of the highs by a few degrees ( 103 to 105) but I'll try my hand closer with the raw due to the southwest surface winds that will be expected this afternoon. The fire danger will be elevated today due to the southwest component combined with the dry vegetation and hot temperatures.
A weak boundary is expected to move southward this weekend but there remains some controversy on how far south it will move. The NAM is more bullish and brings the boundary through the Tulsa area around 1pm to 3pm Saturday while the GFS keeps the front north. The EURO has some support toward the NAM but is a little slower. I already had the wind shift in our forecast for Saturday evening, but I will bring the wind shift into the area around 3pm to 6pm Saturday and keep the Sunday winds from the northeast for most of the day. I'll keep Saturday's highs above the computer numbers with readings around 105 but I may be a few degrees high. If the winds veer ahead of the boundary these very hot temps will be reached.
Saturday evening into Sunday morning a few showers or storms may develop behind the wind shift across the state and our current numbers continue to keep it around 20% for the period.
The ridge will eventually slide more west early next week and flatten but will still bring some hot air to the region before a more robust looking boundary arrives Wednesday evening into Thursday. This should knock the highs down near normal by Thursday with an outside chance of a few storms.
The big news next week may be in the Atlantic. GFS and EURO data ( along with GFDL and others) continue to support a significant tropical system developing in the Caribbean and would approach mainland US interests by the end of next week. I'll not discuss the various solutions because of the variance of track and the totally lack of confidence in any one specific solution.
We do have a hurricane in the Pacific basin ( Greg) but will only impact maritime interests.