More Active Pattern This Week.

How do you spell relief…..R_A_I_N! From the map on the right, you can see that some of us did get some relief, but unfortunately, it was not widespread enough nor generous enough to provide anything more than short term, localized relief. The second map on the right also shows another area of relief and that is the temperature change over the last 24 hours. The cooler temperatures are certainly welcome and many of us should stay below triple digits today, particularly in the more NE counties. Here in Tulsa, it will be close this afternoon and areas to the S and W will likely be back into triple digit territory by the end of the day.

However, the pattern aloft has changed just enough to bring another chance of showers and storms on Wednesday and this more active pattern should continue through Friday. Not everyone will get additional rain each day, but there will at least be a decent chance starting Wed morning when a system is expected to be dropping this way from Kansas and may keep some additional showers or storms into the afternoon hours. Additional chances are expected for Thursday and Friday as well. Unfortunately, these storms may also have locally damaging winds with them each of the next few days.

Speaking of the winds, the wind direction will be highly variable as a surface wind shift will be in the immediate area through Wednesday. Along and north of this boundary, E to NE winds, mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers or storms is expected for Wednesday. South of the boundary, there will be more sun, little or no rain, S to SE winds, and warmer temperatures. Obviously, where you are in respect to this boundary will make a huge difference in the type of weather you will have tomorrow. Much the same can be said for Thursday and Friday when the boundary will finally get a stronger push to the south followed by N to NE winds area wide for Saturday.

Aloft the pattern has changed just enough for a more NW flow pattern to bring occasional systems our way through Friday. This pattern should amplify a little more going into the weekend which will push the actual surface feature further south allowing for the N to NE winds mentioned above. That should also result in lesser chances of rain for the weekend. This overall pattern is in pretty good agreement with respect to the longer range guidance. In fact, the ECMWF model is trending back towards a return of triple digit heat early next week as the death ridge aloft is projected to build back over the state by then. The GFS is not quite as bullish with that feature, so we will see how it turns out. At any rate, we still have a lot of summer ahead of us so enjoy this short term relief while you can.

As always, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot