Our day is starting off by setting a record for the warmest minimum temperature for this particular date which was 80 set back in 2001. The existing record for daytime high on this date is 110 and we may get uncomfortably close to that before the day is over. With a light SW wind for a time during the day that should be just enough to push our afternoon temperatures into the 105-108 range. Heat index values will be at or above 110 as the morning dew points near 70 should mix out into the lower 60s this afternoon.
Anyway you look at it, that is too hot and there is just not any long term relief in sight. There is a weakness in the ridge aloft which should result in a few showers/storms mainly for the more Eastern counties this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Also, it still appears that this weakness aloft will allow a weak boundary to drift down from the north Monday. This would provide a more E to NE surface wind for much of the day. This will not have any cooler air with it, but the wind shift together with a few more clouds and a 20% chance of showers/storms area wide may be just enough to keep us right at 100 and some locations may even stay below triple digits.
For those of you who may look at the various numerical products, some of the guidance is much more optimistic regarding the areal coverage of showers/storms for today through the day on Monday. The numerical guidance has done this before and the verification recently has been pretty dismal. Thus, I will believe it when I actually see it raining and temperatures really do stay below triple digits.
By the way, keep in mind that any afternoon or evening showers/storms that can develop will be moving rather slowly. That means they will be capable of very localized, brief, and heavy downpours and the potential for damaging down burst winds. Outflow boundaries from this isolated activity will also play havoc with local winds some distance away and also provide temporary relief from the heat.
Any relief would certainly be welcome, but unfortunately, the longer range guidance strengthens the dominant ridge aloft back over us during the coming week. That will keep us well into triple digits going into the coming weekend. Any possibility of showers/storms will be pretty well confined to the terrain favored locations of E OK for later in the week and into the weekend. The longer range guidance continues to hint at a possible change in the overall pattern during the following week, but as mentioned above, I will believe it when I see it.
In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.