Don't want to get your hopes up too high, but we do have at least a slight chance of a shower or storm over the next few days. A few popped up during the day Friday and if anything, a few more are expected for today and a slightly better chance for Sunday and Monday. Not only that, but the extra cloud cover should knock a few degrees off the daytime heat for Sunday and Monday, possibly even keeping some of us below triple digits for a change.
This is all due to a weakness in the dominant ridge aloft which has been largely responsible for the heat wave we are enduring. This weakness also has a little more moisture to work with; not so much at the surface as aloft. Our surface dew points should remain in the low-mid 60s, just high enough to add several degrees to the temperature and put the heat index at or above 105 again.
More importantly though, is the tantalizing possibility of at least some brief relief from the heat and drought. In fact, some of the numerical products have been rather robust in breaking out precipitation, but they have done that before and I am basically taking the position that I will believe it when I see it.
At any rate, a few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the terrain favored locations of E OK. For Sunday and Monday, have elected to put in a 20% chance of showers and storms. In this instance, it looks like there is a 100% chance that it will rain somewhere in E OK, but the areal coverage should be on the order of 20%. In other words, there is a 20% chance that any one location will receive measurable rainfall. If you happen to catch one of those, count your blessings.
Also, those that do occur will be moving rather slowly which means some locations could pick up a quick inch or so of rain. That will be very localized though and certainly will not be a drought breaker. Also, outflow boundaries moving out from any storms that do form will play havoc with local winds and temperatures, perhaps enough to keep some of us below triple digits for a change.
Not for long though; the ridge aloft is expected to re-assert itself by mid week with daytime highs well into triple digit territory once again. That will persist into the coming weekend when the models are once again hinting at the possibility of a slightly better chance of rain. We will see.
In the meantime, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.