Hot with ISO Storms Possible

Tuesday, July 5th 2011, 4:43 am
By: News On 6

A few scattered to isolated showers and storms will continue this morning across far southern OK.  Later this afternoon and early evening a few more widely isolated storms will be possible with afternoon highs from 99 to near 103.  Strong to severe damaging downbursts are a possibility in this environment as storms collapse during the afternoon or evening time frames. 

 The hot air will continue but we do see some signs of minor relief for the next few days.  The upper air pattern has transitioned again by pushing the upper level ridge to the west of the region.  This has resulted in the northwest flow aloft over the central plains states and this upper air flow is also clipping portions of northern OK.  The northwest flow aloft is favorable for bringing storm complexes ( MCS) into the region usually during the late night and early morning time frames.  We're seeing a potential MCS signal for the Thursday morning period, but the model performance has been very poor lately and the confidence remains low for the next few days.

The EURO is continuing to suggest that mid level ridge will build back over the area by this weekend effectively shutting off the precip chances and bringing the heat back into the region with triple digit readings.  The GFS is keeping the ridge more "flat" and pushes the ridge more eastward compared to the EURO.  This results in a mid level wave from the Gulf moving northward early next week on the back side of the ridge into western and central OK.  This would be a welcomed sight, but we can't get too excited about this probability as the EURO was suggesting the same thing for the past weekend.