Chance of Storms, Some Severe.

Saturday, June 18th 2011, 5:41 pm
By: News On 6

For the second time this month, we have started our day with a record warm overnight low. This time it has a decent chance of making it into the record books as the only way we will be any cooler before midnight will be if a storm passes over the airport where the instruments are located. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to still be in the 80s by midnight and only dropping into the mid-upper 70s by Sunday morning.

Speaking of storms, there is a chance going through the early night time hours and any storms that can form will be severe with damaging down burst winds and damaging hail the primary threats. Having said that, cannot completely rule out an isolated tornado early this evening either so it could get rather interesting. The chances of any one location receiving measurable rainfall is on the order of 40% going through the early night time hours. The combination of heat and humidity along with a weak boundary in the area as mentioned this morning should produce at least a few storms and once they get going they will be moving on eastward and should be pretty much out of the area by early morning.

That will leave us with another hot, humid day for Sunday but the surface boundary is expected to have shifted further northward by afternoon. That should reduce our chances of any additional storms to only 10-20% at best. Gusty southerly winds of 15-25 mph will provide some much needed ventilation as heat index values will be near or even a little over 100 so the breeze will certainly help in that regard.

Monday will also be hot, humid, and very windy with strong southerly winds. This is in advance of a rather strong system that will be moving slowly eastward out of the southern Rockies during the coming week. This system has the potential to produce some significant severe weather by Monday night and through the day Tuesday. At least the extra cloud cover and more widespread rainfall should keep daytime temperatures in the 80s by Tuesday for only the second time this month. As you can by the qpf map on the right, some significant rainfall totals in excess of an inch will also be possible for much of E OK. Unfortunately, our drought stricken neighbors to the west will likely miss out on most of this rainfall once again.

After that, the frontal boundary will bounce around for a few days keeping us with at least slight chances of showers or storms going into the coming weekend. It will also provide a nice break in the excessive heat with temperatures at or perhaps even a bit below normal for the middle of the coming week.

So, stay cool, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot