Another Warm Afternoon

Tuesday, June 7th 2011, 5:15 am
By: News On 6

Get ready for another unseasonably warm day across the state with highs in the mid to upper 90s in the Tulsa metro.  A weak boundary will brush northwestern OK Thursday and slowly move to near northeastern OK Friday and Saturday bringing a slight chance of storms along with a minor cool down. 

Our mid level ridge of high pressure is beginning to weaken, but will remain the dominate feature for the next few days.  This ridge will "flatten" soon allowing a weak boundary to move into northwestern OK Thursday and into northeastern OK Friday.  The boundary will stall across the extreme northern part of the state Saturday before lifting northward Sunday morning or midday as a warm front.  The presence of the boundary along with a weak upper level disturbance nearby will keep a slight mention of a few storms in the forecast for Friday and Saturday, but only across northern OK and southern Kansas.  Areas south of Tulsa have very little chance of any showers or storm activity with this boundary.  A few isolated "pop up" storms may be possible across extreme eastern OK or western Arkansas during the next few days, but this chance remains near 10%.

 Yesterday's data was a little more bullish in the southern push of this boundary, but I have my doubts.  We may see a brief wind shift Friday evening or so across northern OK with an east wind Saturday from Tulsa northward.  I don't think this boundary will survive Sunday but Ill keep a slight chance of storms in the forecast at this point for the Sunday period.  Saturday evening may have the better shot at a few storms, but again, this would be mainly across northern OK and southern Kansas.  The coverage will be low.

 The extended data continues to indicate the ridge will build back across the southern plains, but not nearly as strong as currently experienced and it will be somewhat displaced to the southwest of our immediate area by the middle to end of next week.

This is a normal pattern for June and would bring the "northwest flow" over the northeastern part of the state around June 17th and possibly lasting for a week or two.  I must caution that the ensembles hinted at this about 2 weeks ago for the beginning of next week!  Computer models are indeed just a model and will change greatly from run to run, but our experience and climo will suggest this northwest flow should arrive in the next week or so bringing at least a chance of a few storm complexes to the region.