A lead wave has rounded the base of the main upper level trough to our west. This has resulted in a few scattered storms this morning across southeastern OK. A few more may be possible today before the main trough gets closer tomorrow.
Another windy and warm afternoon is expected with highs above the seasonal average. A very slight chance of a storm will exist today across southern Ok and north Texas, but most of these will stay south of the Tulsa metro. I have placed a 20% pop on the map to highlight the potential. The main convective show will be tomorrow, but there remain some wrinkles in the data.
A powerful upper level system is currently located across the western U.S. and is spinning toward our direction. A dry line is established across far western OK and will surge into the central part of the state later this afternoon, probably remaining west of I-35. Areas west of the dry line across far western OK will remain very hot and dry with Red Flag Warnings.
Wednesday morning into midday most models depict a lead wave ejecting into the state creating an area of scattered storms. This activity could be strong to near severe levels. The higher probability for surface based storms would occur off the dry line near the western third of the state tomorrow afternoon. The upper air profile would support large hail, damaging wind, and possibly tornadoes in this area. How far east will this activity move? And will the possible Wednesday midday storms in Eastern OK help to deplete surface instability across the eastern third of the state for late afternoon or early evening redevelopment? These are questions that will remain unanswered at this hour.
The EURO is slower with the system compared to the zippy GFS. This means Thursday could also end up being a severe weather day for our friends on the OK-Arkansas state line. Tulsa would be too far west for late Thursday afternoon storms, but stranger things have happened!
The main upper level system will begin to "cut off" from the upper air flow and will be spinning near the southern Illinois area Friday. But this morning's data is now moving the system southward and will be near the Mid-South Region by Sunday into Monday.
This should help to circulate dry, stable, and cool air into the region for the weekend. But the upper air flow will be from the north and this is always tricky. I'll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for Saturday, but this pop could be dropped in subsequent updates.
The upper air flow will be blocky next week. This means most of the major storms will stay away from the state until about Friday of next week.
I'm a huge supporter of the arts. Last night the Bixby 6th grade students had a combined band and choir concert at the Spirit Event Center where approximately 150 kids were on the stage in the combined band and two choirs resulted in about 60 performers. Just a year ago, some of these kids were just learning how to make a sound with their instrument, much less play a real "note". Last night was the first concert of many for these kids in their pursuit of playing and performing music. It was super great! Please support the arts in your community.