Super Friday

We'll start the day with a east or northeast breeze but the winds will quickly return to the southeast as a new surface low forms to our west.  This will occur in response to the next upper level wave that will quickly move into the front range of the Rockies later today.  This upper trough will clip northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas late tonight into early Saturday morning with a chance of a few scattered showers and storms.  The signal for this small complex remains and the confidence for this activity is high.  But the location of the storms should be northeast of Tulsa, very similar to the small area of showers and storms that clipped northeastern OK yesterday afternoon between 3pm and 8m.  The Tulsa metro didn't see yesterdays activity and probably wont see any storm activity late tonight or Saturday morning.  The system will be close enough to keep a 20 pop for Tulsa, and a higher pop to the northeast.  Areas south and west will have no chance to see this activity.

 The upper air flow will resort back to the southwest flow by Sunday and the weak Saturday front will slowly retreat northward as a warm boundary pre-dawn Sunday.  These retreating boundaries are notorious for developing scattered storms if the low level jet cranks up.  The signal is low for pre-dawn storms Sunday, but I'm inclined to mention the chance here on the blog.

 Otherwise our next system will be approaching by the middle of next week and it will be a major deal.  A dry line will set up in western OK or central OK Monday and could fire up a few isolated storms Monday and Tuesday to our west.  These would have a hard time moving eastward due to the capping issues over eastern OK.  But Wednesday the main upper level trough would approach allowing for colder air to spread across the region aloft helping to erode the cap Wednesday.  Thursday the main trough would eject allowing a large area of storm activity, some of which could be severe depending upon the timing of the system.  Stay tuned for more information as the data and time draw closer to the forecast period of interest.