We finally get a break today with sunny conditions and highs in the 70s. Our next system will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday with a chance of showers and storms.
An historic tornado outbreak occurred yesterday across the Southeastern United States with catastrophic damage and loss of life. Preliminary information continues to arrive, but this outbreak may be the worst in US history with violent tornadoes reported in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Violent tornadoes destroyed portions of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham Alabama. The death toll is currently ( 8:05AM) at 128 across the state of Alabama with 194 fatalities reported across the south from yesterdays storms. This number may climb later today as communication becomes established in these areas. A large portion of Northern Alabama was without power last night. Many more cities and communities have been significantly impacted by these storms and additional severe weather is likely today on the east coast before finally moving into the Atlantic later tonight. This upper level system in some form of fashion has been responsible for 4 solid days of severe storms including tornadoes in large numbers. Eastern OK was obviously impacted more by serious flooding but with devastating results for some residents in the eastern third of the state.
We finally get a break from this powerful weather system. Expect sunny conditions and warm air with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with west breezes at 10 to 15 mph. Another upper level system will be arriving to our west soon allowing for gusty south winds increasing Friday as highs move into the mid 80s. South winds Friday may gust from 20 to near 40 mph.
The upper level trough will drag a surface boundary into the region by Saturday night and Sunday morning creating a chance for strong to severe storms along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern OK by Sunday midday. The latest NAM runs suggest a frontal passage Saturday evening around 6pm for Tulsa with the boundary pushing into southeastern OK around 10 PM or so. Model output doesn't develop pre-frontal storms, but holds off for post frontal action through most of Sunday. The GFS is also very similar to the NAM with very little precipitation for Saturday evening but it does create a large area of post frontal precip Sunday with northeast winds. The EURO is now the faster and not slower model. This would mean a higher chance of storms Saturday evening and a slight chance of Sunday morning storms in Tulsa, but some active weather may linger Sunday across far eastern or southeastern OK. The probability of precipitation will probably change in our forecast for this time period, but the actual time period from Saturday evening through Sunday will remain solid.
This front will get another shove Sunday and move southward across Texas allowing for a nice Monday and Tuesday of next week.
The upper air pattern will remain progressive and active meaning additional storm systems will be likely later next week.
Video of the tornado moving through Tuscaloosa.
Storm reports from yesterday. SPC
NWS Jackson Miss.
I'll post more about this tornado outbreak later today.