Storms Possible Later Friday in Northeast Oklahoma

Friday, April 22nd 2011, 6:12 am
By: News On 6

Mostly cloudy, windy, and warm conditions are likely today.  Some storm activity will again be possible for some locations.  Some would be strong to severe.  Highs near 80 are likely.  A cold front will arrive early evening across northern OK before stalling across southern OK late tonight.  Latest NAM and NSSL 4KWRF offerings suggest the boundary could arrive near Tulsa by 4pm at the earliest and around 6pm at the latest.  The boundary would be entering southeastern OK later this evening. 

 We have a messy pattern for the next few days and the forecast is getting complicated regarding exact timing of convective events.  The models are handling the position of the surface boundary differently for the Saturday time period compared to the last few model runs.  The overall pattern would support ample opportunity for showers and storms near and north of the boundary this weekend.  The question will remain:  where will the boundary set up?  This morning's data would suggest some potential for Saturday morning across extreme northern OK while the boundary will be well south using the NAM renderings. This seems likely.  But the Saturday morning pops would be limited in coverage and scope.  I could lower the pops for most of Saturday outside of the morning time period and then bring them back up late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Displaying this on the 7-day planner may get a little messy, so I'll just keep the pops "centered up" for Saturday at a 50% pop.

Saturday evening into Sunday morning GFS data support the boundary oozing northward a hair, but the NAM would keep the boundary more to the south for most of the morning.  Again, morning showers and storms would be possible if the low level jet cranks and our forecast will continue to offer high pops for the Sunday time period. 

 Monday into Tuesday continues to support a major system approaching but the spread in data from the EURO and GFS is just enough to make me spread some additional pops into the Wednesday time period.  The GFS would sweep the main trough east of the area during the Tuesday period, but the EURO would hang back and develop another surface low Tuesday night and move over the area early Wednesday morning.  The net impact:  relatively high pops Monday through Tuesday with a slight pop Wednesday morning.

 The severe threat should ramp up for the Monday system due to impressive dynamics aloft.  Unfortunately, I can't offer any confidence regarding the timing of the Monday system at this point.  A morning offering would limit some of the punch, while a late day arrival would maximize the severe threat.  Stay tuned.

 It's probably a good idea to remain aware of the weather for the weekend.  A boundary nearby combined with surprisingly abundant moisture would result in heavy rainfall issues.

 Next:  Mobile DVD players and game devices.

My sweet children can't ride even a few miles without needing something to "play".  This is totally my fault.  I haven't apparently instilled the joy of looking out the window and counting cows. 

Recently our family decided to eat "out" for dinner.  By the way, I call this " supper" .  Anyway….we had every bit of a half-mile to drive.  My youngest ran to his room to fetch the dreaded DS player, even though we told him he wouldn't have enough time to fire up the box before we arrived at the restaurant.  Thankfully, cooler heads prevailed.  He didn't turn it on until he got to the restaurant.