The cold front appears to be ahead of yesterday's schedule in the model data. This boundary will be nearing the Tulsa metro around noon to 1pm and clearing the state around 6pm to 7pm. NSSL 4K WRF data develops a small area of storms near the Tulsa metro around noon to 1pm before developing into a narrow line of activity as it moves across eastern OK this afternoon.
The higher chances for storm development will be east of Tulsa. A few severe storms producing large hail or a tornado warning can't be ruled out. The system expected this afternoon will not be as strong as last Thursday's system for Oklahoma. Locations more eastward including northern Arkansas and southern Missouri will see an enhanced risk of severe storms including tornadoes.
This will create a mess in the temperature field today. Highs from Tulsa to the west will be reached by noon to 2pm with falling temperatures this afternoon. The Tulsa metro may be near the lower 70s by 5pm with gusty northwest winds. Locations along and east of highways 69-75 will be moving into the mid 80s by early afternoon and then falling into the mid or upper 70s by 5pm.
The front will stall to our south and move back northward as a retreating warm front Thursday. Scattered storms will be possible Thursday as this process occurs. Retreating warm fronts can be notorious severe weather makers if a strong upper level system is approaching simultaneously. Current data does not support a major upper level system Thursday, but this will need to be watched carefully.
This boundary may oscillate north and south for a few days keeping the state in a chance of showers and storms through Easter Sunday. Long range data has also supported a very active weather pattern into next week. Mid to late April is usually when our active severe weather season kicks into high gear peaking in mid to late May. You should always be aware of your weather surroundings, but more so during this time of year.