A regional severe weather outbreak is possible this afternoon across Northeastern OK and Southeastern Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are a possibility. There will be a chance of one or two large and long track tornadoes before storms will merge into a line of thunderstorm activity later tonight. The thunderstorms will be exiting the state by midnight to 1AM. The Tulsa metro window will be from 5pm to approx 8pm.
The SPC (Storms Prediction Center) has issued a Moderate risk for severe storm activity for our area.
A powerful upper level system is moving closer to the area this morning. Strong south winds have already increased across the area which will allow for a rapid increase in low level moisture this afternoon along and east of the dry line. This moisture will be deeper across extreme eastern OK and this is where the severe weather threat may be the highest. It's not impossible to see a few scattered showers or storms forming this morning as moisture increases and lift arrives, but these storms would not be severe. The severe threat will be unfolding later this afternoon and evening.
Wind speeds at the surface today will be from 20 to 30 mph with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The dry line will be approaching the I-35 corridor by 4pm and discrete thunderstorms will attempt to form from south central Kansas into northeastern Ok between 4pm and 7pm. The severe weather parameters will support super cell thunderstorms across eastern OK with very high fire weather conditions across western and central OK.
Friday will be a very blustery day with highs near 60.
This system will be east of the state early tomorrow morning but the upper level low will bring cloudy and very windy conditions to the northeastern OK Friday with northwest or west winds at 30 to 45 mph. A wind advisory will most likely be required. A few spotty showers may also be possible Friday across the northern OK and southern Kansas area. This chance remains less than 20%. Winds across the western half of the state may exceed 50 mph tomorrow afternoon and a High Wind Watch has been posted for these areas.
The weekend appears nice but another system will be approaching early next week with additional storm chances through Wednesday.
Please remain aware of your weather surroundings this afternoon and early evening.