A very small chance of an isolated storm will remain today and tomorrow before a storm system arrives Sunday bringing a slightly higher chance of storms across eastern OK. Event though our storm chances today and tomorrow will remain near 20%, any storm that forms would be severe.
Critically high fire danger will be likely Sunday across central and western OK with a moderately fire danger remaining across the eastern third of the state.
A few scattered showers tried to bubble up yesterday afternoon in Osage county but could never overcome the cap. NSSL WRF4K data this morning indicates another chance of afternoon storms will be possible from 4pm to 7pm near or slightly west of the Tulsa vicinity. This chance remains low despite the model output of placing an isolated storm near the area.
Gusty south winds will continue for the next 36 hours before a cold front moves into the region bringing a wind shift and slightly cooler air into Monday.
A strong upper level system currently well west of the area will be moving into the central plains and eventually the Midwest by Sunday. This will drag a dry line across the state Sunday by midday with the cold front catching up around 7pm to 10 pm Sunday evening.
Locations west of the dry line Sunday will experience critically high fire danger issues. Gradient winds Sunday across central and western OK may approach 30 to 50 mph westerly winds with bone dry air advecting into the area. Locations east of the dry line, including Tulsa and eastern OK will be in upper 50s and lower 60s degree dew point temperatures with humidity in the 45% range during the late afternoon. A few showers or storms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across the east, but the depth and quality of this moisture will be in question. Our fire danger issues will also remain in the moderate category Sunday despite the higher moisture content. If for some reason the system trends faster and dry line passage occurs Sunday afternoon in Tulsa, critically high fire danger issues would also spread east. We'll keep you posted on both the storm chances and the fire issues.
Another strong looking storm system will be possible Wednesday or Thursday of next week depending upon your model of choice. GFS is faster with the system Wednesday and EURO is slower with the system Thursday.
I wish we had better news regarding the fire danger issues but we don't. Even if we see these small probabilities verifying, they will do nothing to elevate the fire danger. If the pattern doesn't change soon and bring significant rains to the state, we'll be dealing with drought and fire danger for a very long period.
My Dallas Stars notched another win last night over Colorado. They have two games remaining and need to " win out" in order to have a chance at the playoffs. In the overall scheme of things, the world will still spin and millions of people on the other side of the world could care less, but it gives me something to enjoy if the Stars could make the playoffs. I'm really not that big of a sports fan compared to my "younger years".
It's a funny thing how your priorities change with a little gray hair and alleged maturity. I say alleged, because my maturity level is subject to debate, but I tend to understand more and more the gift of time and the waste of energy on things of little importance. Now, if I could just truly prune my life of these draining impacts it would be a good thing. Regardless, I still hope the Stars can make the playoffs.