The fire danger will continue to be the big deal for the next several days and weather conditions this afternoon will lead to rapid spread and growth of wild fires. Southwest winds will be increasing from 10 to 25 mph this afternoon with a relatively low humidity field. This set of weather parameters will trigger Red Flag warning criteria for portions of the area. After today, the humidity will be increasing and will help to mitigate the danger into the next few days.
The dry air also cools efficiently. You will get a first hand experience of this cool air this morning with many locations in the lower 30s. A few locations will be slightly below freezing for the next few hours or so across extreme northern Ok and southern Kansas. The growing season has already begun and a freeze warning product will be issued for these areas for the next few hours. Again, official products such as Freeze warnings are issued by our friends from the National Weather Service.
We'll be watching and tracking two systems over the next few days, but the main player won't arrive until this weekend.
A weak front will enter northern OK Wednesday afternoon before lifting northward Thursday morning. If this front could penetrate more southward, we could have slight chance of showers or storms Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. At this point it appears the boundary will stay just north and keep the showers and storms on the cool side of the boundary in Kansas and Nebraska. Just in case this boundary moves more south than expected, I will keep a slight chance of showers and storms for the Thursday morning period across extreme northern OK.
South winds will commence through the end of the period. A dry line will be to our west and a few showers or storms may form off the dry line Thursday afternoon. We have this chance around 20% for the Tulsa metro and surrounding area for Thursday evening.
Another boundary will slide into the region Friday and then begin lifting northward Friday night into Saturday morning. We have this period at a 30% pop but may be increasing this chance during subsequent runs.
Sunday the GFS and EURO both offer a cold front moving into the area. The GFS is faster and the EURO is slower. Yesterday they were both clustering on a Sunday afternoon frontal passage, but today they remain apart on a solution. I won't get too fancy with this system at this point. The upper level system is not even on the west coast yet and will not be sampled correctly in the upper air data for several days. The GFS would support storms late Saturday night into early Sunday morning while the EURO would support storms late Sunday night into Monday morning.
Here's something completely different:
My current favorite TV shows, in no particular order of like or importance:
( Any time NHL hockey is on the air!)
Nova ( on occasion)
I really don't watch a lot of TV, which may sound odd from someone who works in the business. Notice I didn't mention any news programs but I watch at least an hour of news during the afternoon. I'm a news junkie and will flip from CNN to MSNBC to FOX about a 20 times an hour until I move on to something else. I obviously do this during the early afternoon time period at home after leaving from work. But keep in mind; I get up every morning at 2am. By 2pm, the morning weatherman is having a hard time keeping his eyes open and the inevitable nap takes place around 245pm until the kids get home from school.
I also really enjoy watching documentaries. I recently viewed a documentary on the Crash of France Air Flight 447. Fascinating.