We could certainly use a good, widespread, soaking rain event, but as you can see from the graphic on the right, the chances of that are pretty slim. This is an estimate of how the last week of the month will play out with respect to precipitation, and as you can see we are firmly entrenched in a continued dry signal. That is not to say that we will have no rain at all, just that what rain we do receive will be well below what would be expected at this time of year.
In fact, we do have at least a slight chance of showers and thunder over the next few days and again next week as some cool fronts come our way. But, conditions aloft remain rather unfavorable for anything more than just isolated rainfall. For example, the low level jet will be cranking up overnight tonight and could focus a few showers or thunder along the Ok/Ks state line later tonight. Also, a weak cool front will be arriving later in the day Friday and a few showers or thunder could develop along and north of that boundary. The front itself will stall out in the southern part of the state Saturday and with cloudy skies and easterly surface winds, we will be cooler along with a chance of some light rain or showers.
The higher humidity levels and the chance of rain will mitigate the fire danger somewhat. Also, our winds will not be as strong with southerly winds of 10-20 expected for Friday and a more easterly wind becoming SE on Saturday with winds of 10-15 mph.
By Sunday, gusty southerly winds will return becoming quite strong on Monday and into the day Tuesday before another cool front arrives by early Wednesday. This system looks to have much cooler air associated with it, but not much in the way of rainfall. For you gardeners, we could see some frost by Thu or Fri mornings of next week according to what we are seeing at this time.
The bottom line is that the fire danger will be alleviated somewhat over the next couple of days due to winds not as strong, higher levels of humidity, and at least a chance for showers. But, not for long as what rain we do receive will not help much and the stronger winds which will return for early next week will once again pose problems.
By the way, Spring officially arrives on Sunday as well and with temperatures running way above normal it will certainly seem very Spring-like.
As always, stay tuned and check back for updates.