Tuesday Update

Issues:  Surface low track.

This has huge implications on afternoon highs and the threat ( or lack of threat) for afternoon storms in Tulsa.  If the low stays south, Tulsa will be in the lower 50s all day with northeast winds by noon.  If the surface low tracks northeast, Tulsa will move into the lower 60s with south winds and a threat of strong to severe storms as the dry line approaches this afternoon.  This creates a very low confidence forecast for today. I have Tulsa at 58, McAlester at 67, and Bartlesville near 55. 

 Moisture is starting to return across northern OK this morning as a few showers and storms will be possible along the Oklahoma and Kansas state line for the next few hours This is happening in response to the stout short wave that is ahead of the major upper level system that will be approaching the area today.

Southwestern Ok will be behind the dry line this afternoon and the fire danger will be very high in this part of the state.

 The dry line and cold front will be approaching the I-35 corridor around the 2 PM hour and will move into the Tulsa metro around 4pm to 5pm.  A few storms will attempt to form along and ahead of this feature.  If they do, they would be severe with large hail the main threat.  The upper air wind flow will also be favorable for storms to form line segments as the system moves more eastward by 8pm to midnight.  But current indications place the higher chances for this across southeastern OK and northeast Texas. 

 The questions still remain regarding the overall coverage of storms.  These early spring and late winter systems are usually not handled correctly by model data and are usually depicted by higher moisture content than actually occurs.  This has been the case for the past two systems that have moved over the area.  Only time will tell regarding this system. 

  The remainder of the forecast will be a temperature deal with the next system arriving Friday into Saturday.  But the moisture will be suppressed too far south to be in place as this front moves through and no rain will be mentioned.

 The front will stall Saturday across Texas and then move northward Sunday morning or afternoon across the southern plains.  This will bring a chance of showers and storms back to the region Sunday and Monday before a storm system moves over the area Monday of next week.

 Next:

Big screens and DVRs.

My daughter is petrified that I still talk about our VCR.   We have no big screen, no DVR, but our trusty 20 year old VCR still manages to work just fine.  Our TV weighs as much as a boat anchor, and I'm sure the picture will eventually shrink to the point of no return.  I've always been encouraged by new technology.  But big screens still cost bigger bucks and I just don't want to spend it right now.   Does that make me old fashioned?

Anyway, the station replaced some old sets with new big screens on the wall in the newsroom.  It looks pretty good to me.  But...I'll wait till the big old box in the Crone house bites the dust.