The upper air pattern is basically a west to east flow now, but will develop a southwesterly flow aloft by the end of the week. This will bring a storm system near the area this weekend with a chance of storms.
Before hand, temperatures will continue to warm above the seasonal average. Thursday temperatures are expected in the lower or mid 70s. In the last 7 day period, we'll have gone from -31 in Nowata to 74 degrees near Tulsa. That's over a 100 degree swing in a week's time. Amazing.
The front that moved south of the area yesterday is moving northward this morning as a warm front. This will bring low level moisture back into the region with some drizzle potential for the next few hours across the eastern third of the state. South winds will increase in the 10 to 15 mph range and temperatures will level off in the lower 60s near Tulsa for afternoon highs. Areas south of I-40 will continue to be a little warmer, as was the case yesterday, with highs today in the upper 60s.
Wednesday may see a repeat with some morning low clouds along with temperatures moving into the upper 60s or lower 70s.
Thursday should be the warmest day we have seen in a long time with morning lows in the mid 50s and afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Gusty southwest winds in the range of 15 to 30 mph will increase the fire danger across eastern areas with a very high fire danger located across central and western Oklahoma.
Despite the recent snowfall, moderate to extreme drought conditions exist across a large area of the state.
Another weak front will slide over the area Friday bringing slightly cooler air to the region Friday and Saturday, but the return southerly flow Sunday will allow temps near the lower and mid 60s.
The upper level pattern will bring strong winds aloft near the state this weekend with a chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday to the region. GFS and EURO data this morning suggest the possibility of a dry slot moving over the region. This would keep our storm chance on the low side, and I lowered our probability from 50% to 40% for this period.