Weekend Changes

Wednesday, January 5th 2011, 5:04 am
By: News On 6

We expect a mild and pleasant day with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.  A few clouds will persist this morning but should continue to thin out as the day progresses.  A northwest wind around 10 mph will be common.  Winds tomorrow may veer more from a westerly direction allowing the temperatures to move into the mid or upper 50s.  

We do have a few changes to the weekend forecast regarding temperatures.  Recent model data is suggesting a surge of cold air arriving late Friday night into Saturday morning which will require us to lower our weekend numbers.  The area of low pressure currently near Baja will move eastward and spread some light rain across southern OK by Saturday night.  Data is now suggesting most of the precip will be south of I-40.  But early Sunday morning colder air will be filtering down the state and any remaining moisture would turn to snow.  The higher probability for this will be across the Red River Valley of the state.    

Monday the arctic air arrives and will stick around for most of the week even though today's model data suggest warmer air may move back into the region next Friday.  I find this hard to swallow at this point.  Once a significant chunk of arctic air arrives it usually lasts longer than model data depictions.  A high pressure ridge will park over Alaska soon allowing the jet stream to move up and across the North Pole and then straight down into the nation.  This will bring the colder air to the region early next week. 

A short wave will move down the Rockies into the state Monday but at this point most of the snow will stay west early Monday morning.  Monday afternoon into the evening hours some snow will be possible across northeastern OK including the Tulsa area based on today's model runs.  I'm sure these exact solutions will change but the pattern would suggest we're in the park for cold air and at least a chance of some wintry precipitation next week.