Short term issues largely revolve around our rain chances later in the day Monday and the effect the clouds and any showers will have on temperatures. Longer term, I am still cautiously optimistic about our weather on Thanksgiving Day, although the early part of Thanksgiving week could be much more interesting.
First things first and that is the chances of light rain on Monday. The lower levels of the atmosphere are relatively dry with dew point temperatures generally running in the 30s as shown in the map to the right from the OK Mesonet. However, a system aloft will tap into some upper level moisture and should provide enough lift to keep us under mostly cloudy skies for tonight through Monday night and into the day Tuesday. The lift provided by this system will also be capable of creating light rain or occasional showers, some of which will have trouble making it through the drier air near the surface before evaporating. The moisture will be a little deeper the further south you go, so expect a north to south rainfall gradient with the least chances to the north and progressively greater chances for the more southern counties. Late in the day Monday and into Monday night will be the best times for any rain to reach the surface and it should be moving on east of us by Tuesday morning.
This will also have an impact on temperatures. If we get a little more rain than currently anticipated, then temperatures will struggle to even get into the mid 50s during the day Monday. The clouds will keep us well above freezing to start the day Monday and well above freezing again on Tuesday. Fortunately, our winds will be light for Monday and Tuesday, but a gusty north wind will be returning behind a cold front that will arrive on Wednesday. That will likely result in another freeze for Thursday morning before the next rebound in temperatures start for the latter part of the week extending into the coming weekend.
And that gets us into Thanksgiving week. As I have been saying for several days now, the longer range guidance often flip-flops that far in advance which is why we do not rely on it. But, with Thanksgiving coming up, thought a lot of folks would like to have at least a general idea of how the preliminary guidance is shaping up for the holiday. As I have also pointed out for the last few days, you do not want to bet the farm on guidance that far in advance. So, with those caveats in mind, how is Thanksgiving looking? So far, so good. The trends up to this point continue to support the potential for a very wet system moving across the state in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, but the timing also supports this system to be east of us by Thanksgiving Day itself. Barring any changes, that would translate into an unsettled period for the early part of the week followed by improving but cold conditions for Thanksgiving Day and at least a few days after that.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.