A weak front will enter the area later this afternoon or evening and will retreat as a warm front Thursday midday. A slight chance of showers and storms will remain Wednesday night and Thursday morning due to the presence of this boundary. Gusty south winds will continue today with highs in the lower 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be near 70 with the above mention chance of scattered showers or storms. The main focus of the forecast continues to be Friday, but some changes will be made to the forecast based on new model data and observational analysis.
The latest and greatest model data suggest the Friday front will be slower compared to previous model runs. This trend was presenting itself a day ago and the net impact to the forecast will be to keep the temperatures warmer for a longer period of time Friday before bringing the front across the area. The warmest temperatures of the day Friday will be around 60 to 62 in Tulsa and should begin falling into the lower 50s or upper 40s by sunset. Locations south of I-40 and east of highway 69 may hit the upper 60s Friday afternoon before falling temperatures arrive during the early evening. The front may not enter the Tulsa area until about 2pm or 3pm, which also means the higher rain chances may not occur until noon or afterwards. Because the system is slowing the threat for some strong to near severe storms may also increase slightly across southeastern OK. At this point, I don't think the Tulsa metro will have much of a severe weather threat, but some thunder seems likely.
The system should be moving eastward Saturday morning leaving most of the weekend dry but cold. The morning lows Saturday will be in the mid or upper 30s but Sunday morning's readings will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Daytime highs will max out in the mid to upper 50s both days.
The main upper level trough will be near the central plains early next week. This pattern would support not only a few additional chances of showers, but would also support the development of colder air moving into the region. This mornings data suggest a southern stream system may bring a few showers across the southern OK area Sunday night or Monday morning, and I have kept a slight chance in the forecast for this scenario. Stay tuned for developments and check back often. This pattern can get interesting very quickly.