A System Nearing Soon

The major upper level pattern change is in full swing and will bring increasing rain and storm chances to our region by the end of the week.  The upper level trough to the west will be the main player for the next several days, and global extended models suggest this trough will remain near the central part of the nation early next week.  This will be a very interesting pattern for the central and southern plains.  Our main issues before hand will continue to be the gusty south wind and the enhanced fire danger, but the gradual increase in low level moisture will also gradually lesson the fire danger.  A boundary will slide into northwestern or northern OK Wednesday night before lifting northward Thursday morning into central Kansas.  A few scattered showers or storms will be possible during this time period and mainly across northern OK and southern Kansas.  The first short wave embedded in the main trough will lift northeastward Thursday morning and the surface boundary will also retreat northward.  But as the main trough slowly advances eastward, the boundary gets a shove and will move southward.  The threat of strong to severe storms may be mitigated by the timing of the system arriving mainly in the early Friday morning period and due to the lack of deep moisture into the area.  This morning's model data and BUF Kit point soundings would suggest mainly post frontal precipitation.  The data also has slowed the progression of the boundary which means the rain may not enter northeastern OK until afternoon.  If this data is correct, our temperature forecast will need some tweaking.  I inverted the temps for Friday meaning the warmer temperatures will be in the morning with readings falling into the lower 50s or even upper 40s by late Friday afternoon.  We'll more than likely need adjustments for this period as data continues to arrive regarding this system. There may be a few lingering showers early Saturday across eastern OK but most of the rain will be moving quickly eastward after sunrise Saturday. 

Afternoon highs today will be in the mid or upper 70s with gusty south wind.  Sunshine will be the call but a few clouds will be possible. 

The temperatures through the weekend period will be cool with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the upper 50s.  A freeze is likely Sunday morning across Northern OK. 

As the main trough reloads over the central part of the nation early next week, much colder air will slide out of the intermountain region of Northwest Canada into the Rockies.  I expect some of this cold air to filter into at least northwestern OK by the middle of next week and possibly into our area by late next week.  The presence of the upper level system will also result in continuing precipitation chances, as early as Monday of next week.  But data this morning has flipped regarding the precipitation chances and offers very little in the way of rain Monday or Tuesday.  I'll keep our slight chance of showers for Monday night to avoid the flip factor.  Details will follow in subsequent forecasts.