Scientist Works On New Hurricane Model

The 2008 hurricane season is well underway, but will it be an active season or a quiet one?  Scientists are looking at a new atmospheric model that could hold some of the answers, and one day allow them to predict hurricane activity months in advance, providing an earlier warning for those in harm's way.

Former New Orleans chef John Roussous serves up a taste of the Crescent City in his Wisconsin restaurant.  Though he was hundreds of miles away, he says Hurricane Katrina hit close to home.

"It'll be awhile before I go back.  Maybe a long while," said John Roussous.

University of Wisconsin atmospheric scientist Jim Kossin wasn't just close to a hurricane, he was inside one.

"In Hurricane Gilbert that we flew into the eye was very clear because it was such a strong storm," said Jim Kossin.

Now, Dr. Kossin's research focuses on a new way to understand hurricane activity by combining key ocean and atmospheric factors.

It's called AMM or Atlantic Meridional Mode.  A relationship between sea surface temperature, wind speed or direction and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, Dr. Kossin says a positive or warm AMM sets the stage for an active hurricane season.

A negative AMM means colder water, stronger winds, and dryer air or conditions that stop hurricanes.

Concentrating on how the atmosphere and ocean work together may help scientists better understand hurricanes themselves.

"The number of hurricanes that we get, how long they last, how strong  they get, where they track, which I think will have. We're still working on it, but I think it will have a lot of implications for landfall, which of course we care most about," said Dr. Jim Kossin.

It is one more step toward forecasting one of the earth's most powerful natural phenomena.

Dr. Kossin and his collaborator can look at winter conditions and actually create a forecast for the AMM in the following summer, increasing their ability to predict hurricane activity.