NOAA Reports U.S. Likely To Have Above-Average Winter Temps

Wednesday, October 10th 2007, 5:31 am

By: News On 6

NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C., today.

â€œLa NiÃ±a is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter,â€ said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAAâ€™s Climate Prediction Center. â€œThe big concern this winter may be the persistence of drought across large parts of the already parched South. And while December through February is likely to be another milder-than-average winter for much of the country, people should still expect some bouts of winter weather.â€

For the 2007-2008 U.S. winter, from December through February, NOAA seasonal forecasters predict:

--In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic,temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance.

--The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due to La NiÃ±a, while temperatures are expected to be above average.

--In the Great Lakes and Tennessee Valley, temperatures and precipitation should be above average.

--The south-central Plains should see drier-than-average conditions and warmer-than-average temperatures. Above-average temperatures are also expected in the central Plains. The northern Plains has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperature and precipitation.

--In the Northwest, there are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-average temperatures. Precipitation should be above average in much of the region due to La NiÃ±a.

--Drought conditions are expected to persist in the Southwest due to La NiÃ±a, and temperatures are likely to be above average.

--Northern Alaska is expect to be milderâ€“than-average, while the rest of Alaska has equal chances of above-, near-, or below-average temperatures and precipitation. In Hawaii, temperatures and precipitation are expected to be above average.

This winter is predicted to be warmer than the 30-year norm. For the country as a whole, NOAA's heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 2.8 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, but a 1.3 percent cooler winter than last year.

The U.S. winter outlook is produced by a team of scientists at the Climate Prediction Center in association with NOAA-funded partners. Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to extremely complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites.